With six games left of the Women’s Super League season Chelsea and Manchester City are locked on 40 points at the top.
Chelsea are chasing their fifth successive league title in boss Emma Hayes’ final season in charge, while City are looking to triumph for the first time since 2016.
Arsenal are still in contention, but have it all to do sitting six points further back in third.
How are things shaping up for the remaining games? Who has the tougher run-in? What do the pundits and managers think?
Current table
Team | Played | Points | GD | Form (past 5 games) |
1. Chelsea | 16 | 40 | +34 | WWLWW |
2. Man City | 16 | 40 | +32 | WWWWW |
3. Arsenal | 16 | 34 | +17 | WLWWL |
City have recovered from early-season blips to win their past 10 WSL games, including a 1-0 success Chelsea in February, to move level on points at the top but with two goals to make up.
If goal difference is level at the end, the title outcome will be decided on goals scored – and Chelsea currently lead City 48-42 on that metric.
It is only the second time in WSL history that teams have been level on points after 16 games, with Manchester City and Manchester United both on 38 points at the same stage last season.
It was, though, Chelsea who went on to win the title, finishing two points clear of United.
What are the remaining fixtures?
March | West Ham (A) | Man Utd (H) | Aston Villa (H) |
Liverpool (A) | |||
April | Aston Villa (H) | West Ham (H) | Leicester City (H) |
Liverpool (A) | Bristol City (A) | Everton (A) | |
May | Bristol City (H) | Arsenal (H) | Man City (A) |
Man Utd (A) | Aston Villa (A) | Brighton (H) | |
Postponed to date tbc | Tottenham (A) | Bristol City (H) |
Chelsea and Arsenal will both miss a Women’s Super League game across the weekend of 30-31 March as they face each other in the League Cup final at Molineux.
That will allow Manchester City to potentially change the standings at the top, depending on their results in their next matches.
Gareth Taylor’s Blues have to play three of the current top five, but two of them are at home. Chelsea face two trips to top-five sides, while Arsenal have to visit City.
What does the Opta ‘supercomputer’ suggest?
Team | % chance of winning title | Current position & points |
1. Chelsea | 66.7 | 1st – 40 points |
2. Man City | 32.9 | 2nd – 40 points |
3. Arsenal | 0.4 | 3rd – 34 points |
Opta’s ‘supercomputer’ prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances.
These are simulated thousands of times to create the probabilities.
Chelsea ‘in driving seat’ but City ‘will push all the way’
Arsenal midfielder Kim Little told Sky Sports on Friday that Chelsea’s 3-1 win over the Gunners meant the title had “slipped away slightly”.
Former England midfielders Karen Carney and Izzy Christiansen agreed, with the latter adding: “It’s going to be Manchester City pushing Chelsea all the way.”
Ex-Arsenal, Chelsea and Wales striker Helen Ward told BBC Radio 5 Sports Extra she cannot see Chelsea and City dropping enough points for the Gunners to be involved, saying “trying to overhaul a six-point deficit on one team is difficult enough”.
Little believes Chelsea “are in the driving seat”, while Hayes, who will become USA coach in the summer, said: “We’re top, that’s clear. We’re three points in the direction we want to go and that’s it.”
City will keep fighting, though, and winger Lauren Hemp hopes their 4-1 win at Brighton was “a statement” of their intent.
“We want to win it and we will try our best to do that,” she added.
City boss Gareth Taylor said: “All we do is try to attack the next game that’s in front of us. It was seven, one down now. Six to go. We move onto the next one.
“We try to keep it as simple as possible, that’s the way to be. We just try to control what we can control.”
But, who will win it? BBC pundits Anita Asante and Fern Whelan made their predictions after City’s success at Brighton.
“Chelsea arguably have the better run-in and probably it’s their title to lose,” said Asante, who won the Quadruple with Arsenal in 2007.
Whelan, who played for Everton and Liverpool, added: “I’d probably have to agree in terms of the run-in. Anyone can take points off anyone in the league but the way Chelsea are, and they have done it, they have been there before. They are the team to beat.”
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